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NOAA Revises Hurricane Forecast Upward

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Hurricane Isaac/Getty Images

When was the last time a hurricane season generated enough storms to reach the “T” named storm? It’s been a while. In fact, it was 2010 when the tropics were so volatile that 19 named storms occurred during the season. It now looks as if 2017 could be just as active.

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are now following suit with other tropical forecasters in adjusting their seasonal prognostication upward.

At the beginning of the 2017 Hurricane Season, NOAA forecasters were predicting an average season with 11 to 17 named storms. The revised forecast just issued yesterday now suggests that the number of named storms could be anywhere from 14 to 19.

One of the reasons for the increase in forecast storms is the lack of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This atmospheric phenomenon often suppresses tropical formation in the Atlantic. El Nino usually creates wind shear in the upper atmosphere and that makes it difficult for tropical systems to form and strengthen.

There have already been six named storms this year. Hurricane Franklin is poised to make a second landfall in Mexico this morning. Meanwhile, two other tropical waves, one just off the east coast of Florida and the other several hundred miles east of Puerto Rico bear watching for further development.

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