Severe Weather Threat for South Louisiana Through Tomorrow
It's not very often that weather systems produce the potential for severe weather over a specific geographic region for more than 12 to 24 hours at a time. Such is not the case for South Louisiana over the next 48 hours as the area will have at least a "slight risk" of severe storms. What does a slight risk mean?
That graphic from the Storm Prediction Center suggests that the possibility of a severe storm outbreak will be small yet it will be significant enough that you should be informed of the potential threat. It's kind of like a hurricane. It's never a bad season if you don't experience a storm but all it takes is one and that changes everything.
Residents of South Louisiana, in fact, almost all of Louisiana could experience strong to severe storms both today, tonight, and tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has almost all of Louisiana at a slight risk for severe storms today.
In this run of the HRRR Model from Bradley Benoit at KATC Television. You can see the worst of the weather for today will likely come this afternoon and stay with us through the early evening hours.
However, when you look at the graphic from the SPC for Wednesday, you can see there are parts of northern and central Louisiana that will be at a higher risk for rough weather during the day on Wednesday. Here's the solution the European Model came up with for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
As you can see, that's a pretty strong concentration of storms. And that model guidance suggests that some of the stronger storms could affect the areas along and north of the US 190 corridor during the day on Wednesday.
Remember, these are model solutions and not official forecasts. However. the official forecast does lean into the guidance that these models are offering. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles is calling for a 70% chance of rain across the region today.
The threat of showers tapers off just a bit during the nighttime hours but another system will move across the area on Wednesday. That will raise rain chances once again for late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.
As far as severe threats go, forecasters are not projecting this weather event to be nearly as robust as the storm events we've seen over the past two or three weeks. Still, it only takes one storm at your house to change your opinion as to whether or not you felt the weather guessers got it right. Be Safe.
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