Forecasters Monitoring Potential Tropical Trouble in the Gulf
Do not raise your tropical weather anxiety. There is the potential for an area of disturbed weather to move into the Gulf of Mexico. As of now, the National Hurricane Center forecasters are not giving that area of disturbed weather much of a chance to develop. But, still, it bears watching and any kind of weather maker that could bring tropical downpours to Louisiana will only exacerbate issues with the ongoing recovery mission in the southeastern corner of the state.
The area of concern is a low-pressure system that is currently centered onshore in the southern Yucatan of Mexico. This is that same area of low-pressure that forecasters have been monitoring since Monday. The forecast track at that time suggested the system would slip into the Bay of Campeche and eventually northern Mexico.
But, forecasters have amended that track and now believe that it will move out of the Yucatan to the north and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Over the next five days, forecasters are suggesting the disturbed weather will move in a northerly direction. That could mean that by the end of the week there could be a tropical weather maker just off Louisiana's coast.
Here is a live look from Cancun. As you can see, there isn't too much "weather" happening here as a result of the system which is centered just a few hundred miles to the southwest.
As of now, the Hurricane Center is only giving this system a 30% chance to strengthen into a tropical cyclone. But regardless of what meteorological distinction it might earn the biggest threat from it, at least for now, will be an increased threat of heavy rain.
The GFS model is developing an organized low-pressure system just southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River by Thursday. Not a tropical storm, not a hurricane, not even a tropical depression, but at this stage of the game we can't rule those out. But right now the thinking is a rainmaker. This isn't great but it beats the other three options.
So, the plan of action for now? Wait and watch seem to be the best strategies. As it was noted at the top of the article, don't raise your tropical weather anxiety. I don't think there is a need at this time.
Check back with us throughout the Labor Day weekend we will keep you up to speed on what, if anything, you should be concerned about within the tropics.
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