June 1, 2024, was the official start of hurricane season. According to the meteorologists and hurricane scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures will fuel tropical activity above average this season. No one living along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana wants to hear this.

Texas has 15 counties along the Gulf Coast, covering 13,900 square miles of the state and stretching from Huntsville to Galveston Island, the southernmost region.

The folks at CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research have given Texans good reason to be on high alert this hurricane season with the release of the 2024 Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities. Based on data and research, the CSU report gives a breakdown of the probability your county will be affected by one or more storms.

2024 Texas Hurricane Landfall Probabilities - County By County

Arkansas County was hit by Hurricane Laura in 2020. It was a devastating Category 4 hurricane that folks are still working to recover from. Laura's eye was more than 25 miles wide, and the destruction left in her wake cost more than 23.3 billion. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 31%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Arkansas County is 24%, while the probability of major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Brazoria County was last hit by Hurricane Nicholas( Cat. 1) in 2021, which extensively damaged trees and power lines. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 46%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Brazoria County is 26%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Calhoun County was last hit by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which caused a surge of 12.5 feet that cost more than $200 million in damage to the region. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 39%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Calhoun County is 25%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Cameron County was last hit by Hurricane Hanna (Cat. 1) in 2020. The storm surge flooded South Padre Island, and hurricane-force wind gusts to 83 mph. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 38%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Cameron County is 22%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Chambers County was last hit by Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) in 2017. The deadly storm caused 68 deaths and catastrophic flooding that cost $125 million. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 46%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Chambers County is 25%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Galveston County was last hit by Hurricane Ike (Cat. 2) 2008. The storm brought sustained winds of 110 mph and severe rain that caused flooding throughout the island. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 51%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Galveston County is 30%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 9%.

Harris County was last hit by Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) in 2017 and Tropical Storm Harold in 2023. Harvey killed 100 people, causing catastrophic flooding, with parts of Houston receiving more than 30 inches of rain. The price tag of the damage was $125 billion. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 45%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Harris County is 25%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 7%.

Jefferson County Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) brought widespread flooding with total rainfall of over 40 inches, which resulted in over 64,000 homes flooding. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 45%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Jefferson County is 26%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is. 7%.

Kenedy County was hit by the 90 mph winds of Hurricane Hanna (Cat. 1) in 2020 and 2023 by Tropical Storm Harold. Damage and flooding were minor to moderate. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 38%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Kenedy County is 23%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 11%.

Kleberg County was impacted by the flooding rains and damaging winds of Hurricane Hanna (Cat. 1) in 2020.  The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 35%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Kleberg County is 21%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 9%.

Matagorda County Hurricane Nicholas (Cat. 1) landed in Matagorda County, Texas in 2021. Damage was minimal in the area. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 48%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Matagorda County is 28%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 13%.

Nueces County was hit by Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) in 2017. The storm caused catastrophic flooding, unprecedented rainfall, downed trees, and more. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 38%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Nueces County is 23%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 10%.

Refugio County was devastated by catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) in 2017. The storm ransacked every structure in the town, and every resident needed shelter due to damage. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 34%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Refugio County is 16%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 7%.

San Patricio County was brought to its knees by Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) in 2017. The storm wiped out 15,000 homes, left 220,000 residents without power for weeks,and destroyed the sewer systems. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 34%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Matagorda County is 19%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 8%.

Willacy County was met with 130 mph winds, catastrophic flooding, and 51 inches of rain inflicted by Hurricane Harvey (Cat. 4) 2017. The 2024 probability of a named storm impact is 35%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Jefferson County is 21%, while the probability of a major hurricane landfall is. 9%.

Gina Cook
Gina Cook
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Be proactive and familiarize yourself with your area's evacuation plans and routes. Identify a safe place to stay out of the storm zone until the threat passes, such as a hotel or a family member's home. Make provisions for your animals. If it is unsafe for you to stay, it is not for them either. If you live in an area that hasn’t been ordered to evacuate, ensure you stock up on enough supplies, water, and food to endure the storm.

There is no such thing as being “too prepared.” For more ideas on how to get your home hurricane season ready, click HERE.

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