Tropical Forecasters Watching the Gulf for Development This Week
You can't blame people along Louisiana's coastal bayous for being more than a little skittish these days. We're barely a week out from the landfall of Hurricane Ida in the southeastern part of the state. And, the threat of another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico was keeping even the most hurricane-savvy residents a bit on edge.
There is a good news/bad news scenario with this system. Let's get to the not-so-good news first. The area of disturbed weather is a combination of convection, showers, and thunderstorms, around an upper-level low-pressure system and a surface low too. The poorly defined "center" of this circulation was over the western edge of the Yucatan and the south-central Gulf of Mexico this morning.
Forecasters do believe the system will begin to creep northward over the next few days. However, it does look as if the motion will be more to the northeast as opposed to due north. A track that goes due north would bring the system closer to the hardest-hit areas of Louisiana and nobody wants that to happen.
The storm system does have a chance to strengthen. But here is where the good news starts to kick in, at least as far as Louisiana is concerned. That strengthening will be hampered while the system is in the Gulf. Upper-level winds will keep any intensification at bay. However, forecasters do believe the system could become better organized after it moves out of the Gulf and into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the Carolinas.
Once the system moves there environmental conditions are supposed to be more favorable for tropical development. Let's hope that won't be the case. But, if the system does have to develop we can hope it develops out at sea and moves away from land.
Just for grins, we watched a recent model run of the GFS Forecast. It showed no tropical development for the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week. However, it did show a pretty strong cold front heading our way by September 21st. So, we might have to revise our "Cool Snap" projections just a bit if that comes to fruition.
By the way, the GFS is one model solution. It is not an official forecast so don't make life-changing decisions based on the information it provides.
Meanwhile, all that rain we got early Monday morning has pushed offshore with the cold front that was responsible for all of the showers. However, the front has stalled just south of Louisiana. That means rain chances will be possible right along the coast but for the rest of us, we can expect a lot of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 90s.
By Thursday morning our low temperatures could fall into the middle 60s which will be very refreshing compared to the upper 70s and low 80s that we have started the morning with over the past few weeks. Unless the frontal system totally washes out, our next big threat of rain, other than an afternoon thunderstorm won't come until next Monday.
But since it will still be hot, there's still a need for these. Yes, ice-cold refreshment is served as only we can serve it.
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