Sometime in the middle of next week, Tropical Storm Ernesto will likely be making landfall on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico — but exactly where is still a mystery.  And while Ernesto is throwing out winds of around 50 mph this morning, it’s still uncertain at this hour just how strong he’ll become.

The storm path possibilities all have Ernesto heading toward the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, but after that, it’s anyone’s guess.  It could hook northeast back to Florida,  barrel through Mexico or pick any path in between.  This morning, NOAA stated that Ernesto is a poorly organized storm, which could help it remain weaker.  At the same time, some drier air from the north could keep Ernesto from truly taking off.

Having said all that, NOAA did admit that due to Ernesto’s uncertain structure, “confidence in the track forecast late in the period is lower than usual.”  In other words, Ernie’s a loose cannon until later in the week when forecasters can get some sort of grip on what he’ll do.

Now’s a good time to make sure you’re stocked up on flashlight batteries or other non-perishable safety items as we watch Ernesto wobble across the Caribbean.

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