Tropical Formation in Caribbean Possible by the Weekend
The good news is that a cold front has pushed through much of the Gulf South this morning. As we get deeper and deeper into the autumn months that parade of colder air from the north will help to quiet the volatile tropical season that we've experienced this year.
The latest area of concern for forecasters with the National Hurricane Center is an area of disturbed weather just to the west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Forecasters are now giving this developing system a 50% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone by this weekend.
Forecasters speculate that the system will drift slowly to the west-northwest over the next several days. This will likely bring showers and squally weather to the resorts of the Riviera Maya to the west and the beaches of Jamaica to the east.
As is the case with potential tropical systems not all of the tropical model guidance is picking up this system just yet. So it's very difficult to speculate on where the system might go or if the system will actually become a tropical entity worth watching.
Unfortunately, the warm waters of the Caribbean are a frequent spawning ground for tropical systems at this stage of the season. Fortunately, climatology suggests that systems that form in this part of the Caribbean have historically stayed to the east of Acadiana or stayed well to our south.
That, of course, is not an official forecast and quite frankly the system should not be of too great of a concern for Louisiana residents at this time. But, it will need to be monitored and we will do that for you, so check back with us often for any further developments.